Like the Black Plague victim of Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Rick Perry, despite his epic gaffe at the recent Republican debate, is far from being (politically) dead. Sure, is looks really, really bad when the third federal agency you plan to cut is “oops,” but this one moment will hardly take Perry out of the running for the GOP nomination.
For one, stupid comments, even ones related to core elements of an electoral platform, don’t necessarily destroy a candidacy — if anything, let George W, Bush be a testament to that. But, more importantly, one has to realize that there are two ways to view the primary season: in the short-term and the long-term. Yes, in the short-term, Perry looks bad — besides “oops,” he has been a minor or embarrassing presence at all the recent debates, and since September has been on a long downward spiral in the polls, being beat not just by Mitt Romney but also Herman Cain and now even, shockingly, Newt Gingrich.
But, the great (or terrible, depending on your partisanship) thing about primary season is that it’s long, and people have short memories. Iowa is still two months away, and the Convention is in a distant nine. What this means is that, while the memory of debate performances will fade, two things will still remain come voting time — ideology and money. Perry, for all his problems and difficulties taking the national stage, is a Republican star in both. He’s the only candidate in the field that is both conservative enough for the Tea Party and insider enough for the establishment to be willing to at least give some support to. In money, Perry’s also a fundraising savant, a legend in raising campaign cash in Texas (even when compared to the greatest Republican fundraiser of the last decade, George W. Bush) who was able to raise cash twice as fast as Beltway-entrenched Romney.
But, even more important for Perry than his virtues are his opponents’ shortcomings. Cain and Gingrich are both jokes short on cash and support from GOP kingmakers — the two stepstools to winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and the nomination. Meanwhile Mr. Romneycare, while benefitting from all of the attention all the other candidates are getting, will never be absolved by a GOP establishment that fears the last time a moderate won the nomination — George H.W. “No New Taxes” Bush, who lost the White House to some upstart governor from Arkansas thanks to the former’s breaking that pledge. Thus, no matter how calm, cool, and collected Romney looks now, his kryptonite of Massachusetts healthcare and general lack of strong ideology will inevitably lose him the support of key GOP cash and endorsements and thus his chances of surviving post New Hampshire.
So, with no other choice, the party, and thus the voters, will inevitably turn, no matter how reluctantly, to the only other remotely feasible candidate — Rick “Oops” Perry. And, while the GOP may cringe at having to make this difficult, but necessary, choice, Barack Obama and Democrats will be thankful that this recent debate performance is hardly the defining element of Mr. Perry’s candidacy.
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